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  1. Litter production and foliar nutrient resorption in fast- and slow-growing tree species in the Central Amazon

    Litterfall is crucial for forest maintenance, serving as a primary mechanism for nutrient return to the nutrient-poor soils of tropical forests. Foliar nutrient resorption likewise represents an important nutrient-conservation mechanism. Yet, little is known about how these processes vary between fast- and slow-growing species in post-logging areas of the Amazon forest. Here, the objective of this study was to quantify litterfall production and the resorption of foliar nutrients in fast-growing and slow-growing tree species of the Central Amazon, in a forest that was experimentally logged in 1987. The study was conducted from May 2022 to April 2023. Litterfall was collectedmore » biweekly using four collectors that were systematically distributed beneath the canopy of each monitored tree, totaling 72 collectors. Three fast-growing and three slow-growing species were selected, each with three replicates, totaling 18 monitored individuals. Species-specific samples of fresh (green) and senesced (litter) leaves were collected and analyzed for their nutrient content and resorption efficiency. Fast-growing species had a monthly leaf litter deposition of 13.53 ± 1.6 g m−2 month−1, compared to 2.59 ± 0.4 g m−2 month−1 for slow-growing species. The average annual litter production across both functional types was 8.6 ± 2.6 Mg ha−1 year−1. Nutrient inputs through litterfall were higher in fast-growing species for all elements, particularly nitrogen (N), with 21.92 ± 4.9 kg ha−1 year−1. Phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) exhibited the highest foliar resorption. P resorption efficiency was 68.3 % in fast-growing species and 57.8 % in slow-growing species. For K, efficiencies were 59.0 % and 41.7 %, respectively. These results highlight the substantial role that fast-growing species play in restoring forest productivity in managed Amazon forests, both through higher litter deposition and nutrient fluxes, and through nutrient conserving-mechanisms such as foliar nutrient resorption.« less
  2. Neutron Yield of Thermo Scientific P385 D-T Neutron Generator vs. Current and Voltage

    The Thermo Scientific P385 Neutron Generator is a compact neutron source, producing 14 MeV neutrons through the deuterium-tritium (DT) fusion reaction. It is important to measure and understand the dependence of the neutron production rate on the accelerator current and voltage. In this study we evaluated neutron production with an absolutely calibrated liquid scintillator neutron spectrometer (BTI N-Probe), an absolutely calibrated He-3 detector surrounded by HDPE shells (Detec Nested Neutron Spectrometer, NNS), and two uncalibrated ZnS fast neutron scintillators (EJ-410), for both A3082 and A3083 sealed tubes. Here we also modeled the neutron yield using the TRIM code, which calculatesmore » the trajectory and the energy loss of deuterons and tritons within the target. Experimental results showed an essentially linear dependence on beam current, as expected. A 3.59 ±0.08 power law dependence on the operating voltage was measured, in effective agreement with the modeled value of 3.5. A series of absolute NNS and N-Probe measurements, matched against MCNP calculations, showed that the A3083 and A3082 tubes provide a maximum neutron yield of 8.2 × 108 n/s and 4.7 × 108 n/s respectively, with estimated uncertainty of ±10%.We showed, through modeling, that tritium decay is not a significant consideration for tubes, such as these, with lifetimes of less than 10 years.« less
  3. Dynamic subcanopy leaf traits drive resistance of net primary production across a disturbance severity gradient

    Across the globe, the forest carbon sink is increasingly vulnerable to an expanding array of low- to moderate-severity disturbances. However, some forest ecosystems exhibit functional resistance (i.e., the capacity of ecosystems to continue functioning as usual) following disturbances such as extreme weather events and insect or fungal pathogen outbreaks. Unlike severe disturbances (e.g., stand-replacing wildfires), moderate severity disturbances do not always result in near-term declines in forest production because of the potential for compensatory growth, including enhanced subcanopy production. Community-wide shifts in subcanopy plant functional traits, prompted by disturbance-driven environmental change, may play a key mechanistic role in resisting declinesmore » in net primary production (NPP) up to thresholds of canopy loss. However, the temporal dynamics of these shifts, as well as the upper limits of disturbance for which subcanopy production can compensate, remain poorly characterized. In this study, we leverage a 4-year dataset from an experimental forest disturbance in northern Michigan to assess subcanopy community trait shifts as well as their utility in predicting ecosystem NPP resistance across a wide range of implemented disturbance severities. Through mechanical girdling of stems, we achieved a gradient of severity from 0% (i.e., control) to 45, 65, and 85% targeted gross canopy defoliation, replicated across four landscape ecosystems broadly representative of the Upper Great Lakes ecoregion. We found that three of four examined subcanopy community weighted mean (CWM) traits including leaf photosynthetic rate (p = 0.04), stomatal conductance (p = 0.07), and the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (p < 0.0001) shifted rapidly following disturbance but before widespread changes in subcanopy light environment triggered by canopy tree mortality. Surprisingly, stimulated subcanopy production fully compensated for upper canopy losses across our gradient of experimental severities, achieving complete resistance (i.e., no significant interannual differences from control) of whole ecosystem NPP even in the 85% disturbance treatment. Additionally, we identified a probable mechanistic switch from nutrient-driven to light-driven trait shifts as disturbance progressed. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed traits such as the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (reNDVI) could be particularly sensitive and robust predictors of production response to disturbance, even across compositionally diverse forests. The potential of leaf spectral indices to predict post-disturbance functional resistance is promising given the capabilities of airborne to satellite remote sensing. We conclude that dynamic functional trait shifts following disturbance can be used to predict production response across a wide range of disturbance severities.« less
  4. High Flux Isotope Reactor Neutron Spectrum Shape Estimation From Activation Experiment Data

    Here, this article provides a comprehensive review of historical irradiation dosimetry available for different locations within the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This article includes a summary of the available measured activation target data covering a span of over 15 years and 39 experimental campaigns, including 200 individual sample locations evaluated. Using this broad set of data, we reconstruct historic average neutron spectra shapes for HFIR at various locations, including within the flux trap region, beryllium reflectors, and hydraulic tube (HT) regions, at both the 100- and 85-MW operational power. Our findings indicate thatmore » the general axial flux distribution shows a relatively small change in transition from 100- to 85-MW operating power, with differences of -6% to +15% for the thermal energy range and around -16% to +8% for the fast range, indicating a sharper drop-off of the thermal neutron flux away from the axial center. Compared with historical dosimetry estimates of the HFIR flux shape, we generally find a moderately broader axial profile shape for thermal neutrons in the interior target regions for the 100-MW samples evaluated but relatively close agreement for the present 85-MW flux shape for both thermal and fast fluxes.« less
  5. Assessing the Potential Impact of River Chemistry on Arctic Coastal Production

    The Arctic coastal margin receives a disproportionately large fraction of the global river discharge. The bio-geochemistry of the river water as it empties into the marine environment reflects inputs and processes that occur as the water travels from its headwaters. Climate-induced changes to Arctic vegetation and permafrost melt may impact river chemistry. Understanding the impact of river nutrients on coastal marine production, and how this may change in the future, are important for resource managers and community members who monitor and rely on coastal food resources. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model we explore the impact of timing andmore » river nutrient concentrations on primary production in each coastal Arctic region and then assess how this influences secondary production and particle fluxes supporting the benthic food web. Our results indicate that while the concentration of Arctic river nitrogen can have a significant impact on annual average nitrogen and primary production in the coastal Arctic, with production increases of up to 20% in the river influenced interior Seas, the timing of the river nutrient inputs into the marine environment appears less important. Bloom timing and partitioning between small and large phytoplankton were minimally impacted by both river nutrient concentration and timing, suggesting that in general, coastal Arctic ecosystem dynamics will continue to be primarily driven by light availability, rather than nutrients. Under a doubling river nutrient scenario, the percentage increase in the POC flux to the benthos on river influenced Arctic coastal shelves was 2-4 times the percentage increase in primary production, suggesting changes to the river nutrient concentration has the potential to modify the Arctic food web structure and dynamics. Generally, the nutrient-induced changes to primary production were smaller than changes previously simulated in response to ice reduction and temperature increase. However, in the Laptev Sea, the production increase resulting from a doubling of river nutrients exceeded the production increase simulated with an atmospheric warming scenario. Dissolved organic carbon is presently poorly represented in the model so its impact on production is hard to simulate. Applying established relationships between modeled DOC, total DOC, and light absorption we illustrate that DOC could play a very important role in modulating production. Our findings highlight the importance of developing more realistic river nutrient and discharge forcing for Earth System Models such that their impact on the critical Arctic coastal domain can be more adequately resolved.« less
  6. Disturbance-accelerated succession increases the production of a temperate forest

    Many secondary deciduous forests of eastern North America are approaching a transition in which maturing early successional tree species are declining, resulting in an uncertain future for these forests’ century-long carbon (C) sink. We initiated the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment (FASET) at the University of Michigan Biological Station to examine the patterns and mechanisms underlying forest C cycling following the stem-girdling induced mortality of >6,700 early successional Populus spp. (aspen) and Betula papyrifera (paper birch). Since 2008, meteorological flux tower-based C cycling observations from the 33-ha treatment forest have been paired with those from a nearby unmanipulated forest. Following overmore » a decade of observations, herein we revisit our core hypothesis: that net ecosystem production (NEP) would increase following the transition to mid-late successional species dominance due to increased canopy structural complexity. Supporting our hypothesis, NEP was stable, briefly declined, and then increased relative to the control in the decade following disturbance; however, increasing NEP was not associated with rising structural complexity but rather the rapid 1-year recovery of total LAI as mid-late successional Acer, Quercus, and Pinus assumed canopy dominance. The transition to mid-late successional species dominance improved carbon-use efficiency (CUE = NEP/gross primary production) as ecosystem respiration declined. Similar soil respiration rates in control and treatment forests, along with species differences in leaf physiology and the rising relative growth rates of mid-late successional species in the treatment forest, suggest changes in aboveground plant respiration and growth, respectively, were primarily responsible for increases in NEP. We conclude that deciduous forests transitioning from early to middle succession are capable of sustained or increased NEP, even when experiencing extensive tree mortality. This adds to mounting evidence that aging deciduous forests in the region will function as C sinks for decades to come.« less
  7. Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

    We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parametersmore » in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.« less
  8. Protocols for Assessing Transformation Rates of Nitrous Oxide in the Water Column

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas and an ozone destroying substance. Yet, clear step-by-step protocols to measure N2O transformation rates in freshwater and marine environments are still lacking, challenging inter-comparability efforts. Here we present detailed protocols currently used by leading experts in the field to measure water-column N2O production and consumption rates in both marine and other aquatic environments. We present example 15N-tracer incubation experiments in marine environments as well as templates to calculate both N2O production and consumption rates. We discuss important considerations and recommendations regarding (1) precautions to prevent oxygen (O2) contamination during low-oxygen and anoxicmore » incubations, (2) preferred bottles and stoppers, (3) procedures for 15N-tracer addition, and (4) the choice of a fixative. We finally discuss data reporting and archiving. We expect these protocols will make 15N-labeled N2O transformation rate measurements more accessible to the wider community and facilitate future inter-comparison between different laboratories.« less
  9. An overview of wind-energy-production prediction bias, losses, and uncertainties

    Abstract. The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the reported average energy prediction bias is declining. Herein, we present a literature review of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify amore » long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary of how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the article.« less
  10. Automated Tool to Create Chronological AC Power Flow Cases for Large Interconnected Systems

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